Brexit & Beyond newsletter

25 February 2025

Welcome to the 25 February 2025 Brexit & Beyond newsletter

 Over the weekend elections to the Bundestag were held in Germany. Friedrich Merz will be the next Chancellor.

Last Monday, European leaders met in Paris. This week a delegation from the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will travel to London to discuss EU-UK relations.

Washington DC is very busy this week with visits from EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič, French President Emmanuel Macron and the Prime Minister. A delegation from the European Parliament’s Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection is also visiting.

Last week, the Windsor Framework Democratic Scrutiny Committee heard legal advice and departmental evidence on a proposed EU Regulation regarding the strengthening of the position of farmers in the food supply chain (COM(2024)577).

The House of Commons Northern Ireland Affairs Committee published written submissions as it continues work on its rolling inquiry on the operation and implementation of the Windsor Framework.

 

 

German elections


Elections to the German Bundestag took place on Sunday. Results released by the electoral authority, and reported by the Independent, confirm that Friedrich Merz, leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU), will be the next Chancellor. The Christian Democrats and the centre-left Social Democrats of outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz won a combined majority of seats in the national legislature after small parties failed to make the electoral threshold. 

Results also showed that Alternative for Germany, or AfD, are now Germany’s second-largest party.

The conservatives won 208 of the 630 seats in Bundestag while the AfD won 152. The Social Democrats got 120 seats and the Left party 64.

Negotiations now begin to form a government, with a CDU/SD coalition the most likely outcome.  Merz has ruled out working with the AfD.  It’s reported that Merz is keen to have the government formed by Easter.

Posting on X, the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer stated: "I look forward to working with the new government to deepen our already strong relationship, enhance our joint security and deliver growth for both our countries."

Friedrich Merz, the new German Chancellor

 

UK- EU Relations


Last Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted the leaders of Germany, the UK, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark in Paris. Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission; António Costa, the president of the European Council; and Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, were also in attendance.

Afterwards, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said Europe must "play its role", but that any future security guarantee for Ukraine would require a "US backstop"

Le Monde confirmed there was no joint statement or major announcements after the meeting, which participants said needed to be left for forums like the EU or NATO.

The Prime Minister invited European leaders to the UK for a briefing after he meets with US President. Politico’s London Playbook reported that a senior government official said the Prime Minister “wants them to visit “soon” after he returns from Washington so they can keep up momentum on bolstering European security.”

This week a delegation from the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will travel to London to discuss EU-UK relations. They will cover competitiveness and investment, Ukraine’s reconstruction and sanctions against Russia, banking supervision, financial services, and digital finance. MEPs will meet, among others, the Bank of England Deputy Governor, the Financial Secretary to the Treasury and members of House of Lords and House of Commons (Monday to Wednesday).

 

US-EU Relations

On Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen received US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg. The European Commission read-out said:

“The President emphasised the EU's critical role in ensuring Ukraine's financial stability and defence, with a total commitment of €135 billion (approximately $145 billion) — more than any other ally. This includes $52 billion in military assistance, matching US contributions.”

“Reaffirming the EU's commitment to a just and lasting peace, the President reiterated that any resolution must respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, backed by strong security guarantees. She also expressed the EU's willingness to work alongside the US to end the bloodshed and help secure the just and lasting peace that Ukraine and its people rightfully deserve.”

Mr Kellogg later met Council President António Costa.

EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič flew to Washington on Tuesday for a three-day trip. On Thursday, Reuters reported that he said his “top priority in trade talks with President Donald Trump's administration is to avoid a period of economic pain for both sides from unilateral US tariffs and EU countermeasures.”

Between 24 and 28 February 2025, MEPs from the European Parliament’s Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection will visit Washington DC. The main aim of this visit is to strengthen the transatlantic cooperation on key policy IMCO areas while obtaining feedback from US stakeholders on the implementation and impact of major EU legislation. Sandro Gozi MEP, Chair of the European Parliament's Delegation to the EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly is part of the delegation.

France’s president Emmanuel Macron is in Washington to discuss Ukraine and US-Europe relations with US president Donald Trump.

 

US-UK relations

The UK prime minister heads to Washington DC on Thursday, following the visit there on Monday by French President Emmanuel Macron. Writing for the think tank, UK in a Changing Europe, Billy Melo Araujo, Professor of European and International Law, Queen’s University Belfast and Researcher for the ESRC-funded Centre For Inclusive Trade Policy, examines how Northern Ireland could be uniquely affected by a trade war between the USA and the EU
   

Trade relations

Yesterday negotiations over a UK-India trade agreement commenced in New Delhi where Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will meet his Indian counterpart Piyush Goyal. He said:

“Securing a trade deal with what is soon-to-be the third biggest economy in the world is a no-brainer, and a top priority for me and this Government. That is why I’m flying to New Delhi with our top negotiating team to show our commitment to getting these talks back on track.”

Investment Minister Poppy Gustafsson will also address investors in two of India’s foremost business centres Mumbai and Bengaluru, to sell the UK as the best and most connected place for Indian businesses to invest.

 

Movement of goods – new rules

From 24 February, non-qualifying Northern Ireland goods (goods that do not meet the requirements to be qualifying Northern Ireland goods, such as goods from the EU) that enter Great Britain from Northern Ireland will move under SPS controls. For example, they will need to complete a pre-notification on the import of products, animals, food and feed system (IPAFFS) and provide relevant sanitary or phytosanitary certificates.                                                                                                 

UK government guidance is available here

 

Windsor Framework Democratic Scrutiny Committee


On Thursday 20 February, the Northern Ireland Assembly Windsor Framework Democratic Scrutiny Committee (DSC) heard legal advice and departmental evidence on a proposed EU Regulation regarding the strengthening of the position of farmers in the food supply chain (COM(2024)577). One of the proposed amendments is relevant to the Windsor Framework: it amends Regulation (EU) 1308/2013, the Common Market Organisation (CMO) regulation, parts of which apply in Northern Ireland under the Windsor Framework.

The European Commission states that the proposal aims to strengthen the position of farmers in the agri-food supply chain and increase trust between actors. The relevant part of the proposal would define when terms such as “fair,” “equitable,” and “short supply chains” can be used for marketing agricultural products. This is intended to increase trust and fairness along the food supply chain.

Officials explained to the DSC that the proposal aims to increase the transparency and reliability of the use of the these terms, to ensure the fair allocation of value added along the food supply chain, to prevent the misuse of the terms, and ensure that consumers have reliable information. They stated that it is not likely that the proposed amendments would have a significant impact specific to the everyday life communities in Northern Ireland in a way that is liable to persist. (This is one of the conditions to be met if the Stormont Brake is to be used).

Officials noted that these terms have never been regulated before and that it's difficult to assess their potential uptake, or the extent of the likely impact. However, they noted the terms are optional, and there would be no impact on foods moving GB-NI under the NI Retail Movement Scheme, nor on qualifying goods moving NI-GB which benefit from ‘unfettered access’.

The European Commission's consultation on this proposed EU act is open and stakeholders can submit feedback until 10 March 2025. The Committee decided to monitor the progress of the proposed law through the EU legislative system.

The Committee also considered work planning on EU acts, which were proposed before the DSC was established.

 

Operation of the Windsor Framework


As part of a rolling inquiry examining the operation and implementation of the Windsor Framework, The Northern Ireland Affairs Committee has received and published 15 pieces of written evidence.  As highlighted by John Campbell (BBC News NI), the Horticultural Trades Association (HTA) told the Committee:

“There is no solution on offer for plants sold from GB online or mail order retailers to Northern Irish consumers, who will either find it impossible or difficult and costly to order plants from British based online sellers and mail order companies. This is due to the requirement for phytosanitary certificates remaining for parcels of plants sent from GB businesses to NI consumers, with no easements in place for parcels going business to consumer, only for privately sent parcels.”

Read more about the Windsor Framework here.

 

EU regulation of tumble dryers


In response to written question AQW 22198/22-27, the Economy Minister clarified that Commission Regulations (EU) 2023/2533 and 2023/2534, which pertain to household tumble dryers, fall under reserved matters. She further explained that policy responsibility rests with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.

 

Irish citizenship applications

The Financial Times reports that applications for Irish citizenship from Great Britain hit a post-Brexit high last year. According to the FT, British applications to the Foreign Births Register, a citizenship route for people with Irish grandparents or parents, increased 15 per cent in 2024 to 23,456, according to official data. This was the highest figure since digital records began in 2013, surpassing the previous peak in 2019, the year before the UK officially left the bloc.

 

Financial Times chart showing the annual applications to the Irish Foreign Births Register from Great Britain 

 

Reza Nezam, partner at RNL Solicitors, a law firm that advises people on FBR applications said: “We expect that the numbers are going to continue to rise as the UK economy continues to be unattractive for the younger generation and those approaching retirement see that there is the prospect of super taxes,”.

Úna O’Brien, senior associate at Sinnott Solicitors, said the rise in applications reflected the inconvenience of post-Brexit travel restrictions and the “cumbersome” application process that sometimes took years to complete.

“It was only really from 2022 that the reality of Brexit took effect and British citizens started to experience harsh [realities of] travel as holders of non-EU passports,” she added. “For some it is a case of wanting an Irish passport simply to avoid the non-EU queues at airports.”

The FT notes that there are far fewer applications through the naturalisation citizenship route, which relies on being resident in Ireland for a number of years. Only 646 of applications from UK citizens were made in the first eight months of 2024, up to which data is available, accounting for 7 per cent of the total number made through this channel.

 

Other news

  • Crop Production Magazine shares the story of one County Down agronomist who felt he had no choice but to sell his agri-merchant business because the impact on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland post-Brexit has been so significant.                                                                                                                                                                     
  • The Times reports that Sir Keir Starmer is going to offer the EU an “Australian-style” youth mobility scheme as part of his reset with the EU. The Times says the proposed reciprocal scheme would allow young British people, aged 18-30, similar access to countries in the EU.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
  • Last Tuesday, the NI Court of Appeal paused the UK government's attempt to overturn a court ruling that found parts of the UK Illegal Migration Act were unlawful in Northern Ireland.