Brexit & Beyond Newsletter
6 March 2023
Welcome to the 6 March 2023 Brexit & Beyond newsletter
Last week the EU and UK announced the ‘Windsor Framework’, a new agreement (in principle) on revisions to the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. This week’s newsletter covers the debate in the House of Commons on the deal, reactions from NI political parties and businesses, and analysis from experts about the implications of the Framework. The UK Government says it is engaging in discussions and will clarify how the ‘Stormont Brake’ mechanism will operate in practice.
The Windsor Framework
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak presented the Windsor Framework in Parliament last Monday. He said it “delivers free-flowing trade within the whole United Kingdom. It protects Northern Ireland’s place in our Union and it safeguards sovereignty for the people of Northern Ireland.” Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said, while the deal is not perfect, his party will support it. DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson sought an assurance from the PM that the UK Government will “not allow the application of EU law to put barriers in the way of our ability to trade with the rest of our own country.” Stephen Farry said the Alliance party “has massive concerns about this potential Stormont brake”, suggesting it risks more instability into the Assembly, and uncertainty for businesses regarding ongoing EU single market rules. SDLP MP Claire Hanna asked the PM to “commit his Government to championing loudly our [NI’s] unique dual market access, working to prevent vexatious use of the Stormont brake, and keeping a focus on restoration of the Stormont Executive.”
DUP Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson speaking in the House of Commons last Monday | Source: UK Parliament
The deal, which was agreed in principle last week with the European Commission, revises the Protocol in a number of areas and covers customs, agri-food, medicines, VAT and excise, plus a new mechanism for the involvement of the NI institutions, the ‘Stormont Brake’. The Institute for Government has produced an sector by sector explainer of the deal, comparing it to the EU’s and UK’s starting positions. The BBC reports on what the deal means for businesses. The Commons Library has published a research briefing on the Framework. KPMG has produced a summary of the deal and what it means for NI business.
On Tuesday (28 February), the Prime Minister held a Q&A session with local business leaders at the Coca-Cola factory in Lisburn to promote the Windsor Framework. He said the deal would make NI “the world’s most exciting economic zone”.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaking about the Windsor Framework at the Coca-Cola factory in Lisburn | Source: Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
Next steps
The Withdrawal Agreement Joint Committee is expected to meet later this month, where the EU and UK will translate the agreement into legally binding commitments.
Views from Northern Ireland’s political parties
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has said the DUP is continuing to scrutinise the deal, and is seeking advice from experts. He says the progress in the deal wouldn’t have been achieved without the “firm stance” taken by his party. Today Donaldson announced he is establishing a consultation group to gauge views on the Windsor Framework. It will provide a report to him by the end of March and includes former party leaders, current MLAs, MPs, and former Executive ministers. He added, “We have already commenced discussions with the UK Government on a range of issues where we require further clarity and where we believe more work will be needed.”
Sinn Féin Vice-President Michelle O’Neill spoke to the PM on Tuesday. She welcomed the conclusion of a deal and told Sunak “to keep the positive momentum going to restore the Executive without any more delays.” Speaking to Belfast Live, Alliance leader Naomi Long welcomed a greater say for NI in laws which apply here. However, she questioned how the Stormont Brake would work and said it would be “undemocratic” if a minority had a veto in the Assembly, adding, "I think no one in the last 25 years has looked at this place and said what we need are more vetoes, so I think that would be a mistake." UUP Leader Doug Beattie said his party would take time “to drill into the detail and consult widely to enable ourselves to make an informed decision” on the deal, noting, “We are yet to see the legislation that will be enacted, the full legal text, we don’t yet have the full detail on the Stormont Brake, and we are waiting to see the exact changes that will be made to the Northern Ireland Act.” In the Commons on Wednesday, Colum Eastwood (SDLP) asked the PM, given NI’s access to the EU and UK single markets, whether the Government would “commit to investing in infrastructure and higher education provision to maximise that benefit.” The Prime Minister said, the agreement “will unlock that investment, but, critically, a step on that journey is to have a reformed Executive, something I know everyone in this House would like to see.”
The Stormont Brake
A new provision in the Windsor Framework is the ‘Stormont Brake’, which the Prime Minister has hailed as “a powerful new safeguard” for NI institutions. He told Parliament, “That is a permanent change and it ends the automatic ratchet of EU law. If the veto is used, the European courts can never overturn our decision.” Politico reports comments from a UK official that the ‘Stormont Brake’ was discussed relatively early in the talks, and “was kept the most secret of secret things.”
When new or amended EU laws on goods are introduced, which would apply to NI under the Protocol, the Brake could be pulled with the support of 30 MLAs from at least two parties. This would then give the UK Government a veto over the changes. The EU and UK texts on the Brake set out various conditions and limitations for its use: the amended or replaced EU law should “significantly differ[s]” and should “have a significant impact specific to everyday life of communities in Northern Ireland in a way that is liable to persist.”
The PM stated on Monday that the Government will work with the Northern Ireland Assembly and all parties “to codify how the UK Government will use that veto”. The BBC reports that the UK Government is engaging with Northern Ireland’s parties on this. Last Friday, Secretary of State for NI Chris Heaton-Harris said the Government is going "to clarify exactly how the Stormont Brake will work and bring forward amendments to the 1998 Northern Ireland Act to absolutely demonstrate that Northern Ireland's place is in the United Kingdom." Heaton-Harris will appear before the Commons NI Affairs Committee on Wednesday.
Political reactions
NI Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris wrote in Conservative Home, “As a lifelong Eurosceptic and former Chairman of the European Research Group I support this deal strongly. It removes the need for the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill because it ends all trade barriers and protects our Union.” In the Telegraph, NI Office Minister Steve Baker said the Protocol was “unfinished business, just as we knew it would be when we voted for Boris Johnson’s deal.” He called the Stormont Brake a “powerful safeguard, based on cross-community consent. I can’t overstate the importance of this achievement which many believed would be impossible.” He also contends that it “marks the end of dynamic alignment.”
MEPs David McAllister, Bernd Lange and Nathalie Loiseau, co-Chairs of the European Parliament’s UK Contact Group, welcomed the deal, saying it “shows that joint efforts to find bilateral solutions to mitigate the consequences of Brexit can ensure stability and predictability for people and businesses in Northern Ireland while maintaining the integrity of the EU’s Single Market…The European Parliament will now scrutinise the agreement in more detail and thoroughly monitor its implementation.”
US President Joe Biden released a statement on the deal, saying “I appreciate the efforts of the leaders and officials on all sides who worked tirelessly to find a way forward that protects Northern Ireland’s place within the UK’s internal market as well as the EU’s single market, to the benefit of all communities in Northern Ireland.”
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson said of the deal, “I'm going to find it very difficult to vote for something like this myself….I hope it will work…I also hope if it doesn’t work, we have the guts to deploy the [Northern Ireland Protocol] Bill again.” Heaton-Harris released a statement on Thursday defending the deal as “a better option than the Protocol Bill, which kept automatic alignment with EU law for red lane trade.” Lord Frost, who negotiated the Protocol under Boris Johnson, writes in the Telegraph, “the deal leaves a slightly amended Protocol and EU law in place in Northern Ireland and the EU has agreed to change its own laws so that they bite less tightly. That is worth having, but it isn’t taking back control.” He adds, “That doesn’t mean the deal shouldn’t go ahead. It will help...It leaves the Government still only partly sovereign over all its territory. Just as in 2019, that is a bitter pill to swallow.”
Views and analysis of the Windsor Framework
Barrister Alexander Horne calls the framework a “pragmatic bundle of measures, which will be well received by consumers, businesses, and those concerned with maintaining good relations between the UK and the EU.” Professor Michael Dougan tweets that in agreeing to the changes in the Windsor Framework, the EU “has shown considerable trust in UK”, making the EU “even more reliant on a third country for the safety and integrity of its own external frontier…the price the UK pays for enhanced responsibility and trust is more obligations of its own” (e.g. labelling requirements, data sharing, and enforcement of breaches). Dougan expects some legal queries about whether these changes to the existing Protocol fall within the available “amendment” powers of the Joint Committee, noting the European Commission has offered a fuller justification for this.
Divergence
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform writes that the agreement “may well herald a much happier period in EU-UK relations” but that the UK Government’s Retained EU Law Bill is causing some concern in the EU with worries that the dismantling of social and environmental protections could breach the level playing field provisions in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement. The Retained EU Law Bill is currently at committee stage in the House of Lords. The Institute for Government’s Jess Sargeant and Jill Rutter note that the UK Government has offered no equivalent ‘brake’ for NI to say no to potential disruptive UK divergence, writing, “If the DUP is genuinely concerned about different rules applying in Northern Ireland to the rest of the UK, it should also push the UK government for assurances of how it will prevent harmful divergence arising from changes to UK or England regulation if the government insists on proceeding with the [Retained EU Law] bill.”
Trade provisions
Trade expert Sam Lowe concludes that the deal, while oversold, offers some tangible benefits compared to the existing arrangements, writing, “Obviously, if you wanted to tear the whole thing up and start a massive trade war with the EU, you’re probably disappointed. But if you’re a fan of not having a trade war, incremental progress and compromise [me], you’re probably happy.” Customs and trade advisor Anna Jerzewska has written a Twitter thread on the trade and customs provisions.
Haulier Peter Summerton, managing director of McCulla Ireland, writes to the Newsletter noting that there will still be requirements for NI traders to complete a simplified customs declaration with 21 fields, and requirements for “not for EU” labelling. He states, “For traders who bring goods into the country with no fixed point of sale the challenges become more complex, especially for meat products.” He comments that the Framework “appears to repeat many of the issues of the previous implementation. The actual contents seem to vary from the external labelling it got.”
Chairman of Marks & Spencer Archie Norman said the deal “solves the Rubik’s Cube of the Protocol” and will “improve product availability, range and freshness” in NI stores. He notes remaining challenges/complexity for trading with the EU and calls on the UK and EU to “break down the barriers to trade that still exist”. The Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) says the deal “should help grocery businesses in GB to go on supplying customers in NI, with much less cost and complexity. In particular, it will make it much easier for SMEs in GB, with limited expertise and resources, to serve demand from NI.” It notes that the red and green lane system will require grocery businesses in GB to allocate goods to separate loads according to their end destination i.e. NI or Ireland. The IGD highlights that detailed proposals are not provided on arrangements for agri-food goods.
Medicines
The Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry said the deal “appears to bring a return to a single UK market for medicines, providing the permanent solution that our members have been calling for.”
Other news
- The Financial Times reports that the Prime Minister is holding back on joining Horizon Europe, the EU’s €95.5 billion research and innovation programme. The paper reports colleagues of the PM saying he is “sceptical” about its value. Last week, when announcing the deal on the Protocol, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was ready to immediately work on the UK’s association to Horizon Europe. The UK’s accession was blocked by the EU while the Protocol dispute was ongoing.
- The Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission and Equality Commission for Northern Ireland are launching an awareness-raising campaign this month on their work to ensure that certain equality laws and human rights in Northern Ireland are protected post-Brexit. Under Article 2 of the Protocol, the UK Government committed to ensuring that there would be “no diminution of rights, safeguards or equality of opportunity” (as set out in the Good Friday Agreement) as a result of the UK leaving the EU.
- The 63rd plenary Session of the British-Irish Parliamentary Assembly is being held in Parliament Buildings today to mark the 25th anniversary year of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. You can watch the coverage on the NI Assembly website.
- The European Parliament’s Committee on Constitutional Affairs voted to approve a report on the first three years of the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement. MEPs will amend the draft text in light of the Protocol deal reached last week. The vote in plenary is expected to take place in mid-March.
