Committee for the Environment - Inquiry into Climate Change Submissions

Council for Nature Conservation and the Countryside - Paper on Climate Change

Summary

The Council for Nature Conservation and the Countryside (CNCC) is the statutory body providing advice to the Department of the Environment on nature and countryside conservation issues, particularly as they affect Northern Ireland. Considering that climate change will have considerable effects upon our countryside, its wildlife and its human population, CNCC has produced this paper to outline its overall position on climate change. Further information on the Council’s position on specific renewable energy sources is available in the Council’s paper on renewable energy.

Recognising that there is now widespread acceptance, globally, that climate change is occurring, and that human-induced activities are contributing to these changes, CNCC accepts that there is an urgent need to consider what actions need to be taken in the years ahead in order to reduce or eliminate the adverse effects of climate change. One of the most important expert bodies dealing with climate change is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established in 1987 as part of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change. Composed of approximately 2500 scientists from all over the world, most of whom are climatologists, in its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, signed off by all the world’s governments, the IPCC wrote that

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”. (1)

It is however both significant and worrying that even since the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, a number of studies have emerged which, based upon observed changes that were more severe (worse) than even the worst case scenarios previously painted by the IPCC and observations of positive feedback (where warming changes circumstances to the point where the new circumstances then create further warming) that strongly suggest that many of the IPCC’s predictions were conservative and that the rate and scale of climate change could be much worse than the IPCC had predicted (2).

In summary:

• CNCC accepts that the climate is already changing and that further warming and change is inevitable. Consequently, CNCC believes a combination of mitigation and adaptation policies, as part of a long term climate change and energy strategy must be developed and implemented throughout all future Northern Ireland policies to help Northern Ireland better manage the threats to biodiversity and people from a changing climate. Where relevant, this should be done in co-ordination with neighbouring administrations.
• CNCC recognises that climate change is a natural phenomenon and that the Earth’s climate is variable and has changed a number of times throughout the billions of years of the Earth’s history. However, CNCC also accepts that the changes in climate that have been observed in the last few decades of the 20th Century and the changes in climate that are being predicted to take place throughout the 21st Century, and beyond, are outside of the range of normal variation in the climate and that these changes can only be adequately explained when one accounts for the additional input of greenhouse gases due to man’s activities. Based upon the current body of evidence and what is currently the best available science, CNCC accepts that recent changes in climate are primarily the result of man’s behaviour and that to tackle man made climate change, man must reduce the emission of greenhouse gases produced as a result of man’s activities.
• CNCC supports the target which has been adopted by both the EC and the UK that global temperatures must not be allowed to rise by more 2°C above pre-industrial levels (of approximately 1750). All future policies must facilitate and be designed towards the achievement of this target.
• CNCC believes that a global temperature rise of more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels is likely to be ‘dangerous’ and must, if possible, be prevented. However, CNCC recognises that further warming, even if does not exceed the 2°C threshold, threatens to produce very serious negative effects for wildlife and people, both locally in Northern Ireland and globally.
• CNCC believes that in order to have at least a 50% chance of meeting the 2°C target, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially Carbon Dioxide (CO²) need to peak no later than 2015 and then be reduced by at least 50% by 2050 so the global concentration of GHGs does not exceed 450 ppm CO² equivalent.
• Given the historical disproportionately large contribution of GHG emissions from developed countries, CNCC supports the principle of contraction and convergence (which is based upon a global fair share of GHG and CO² emissions) at a much lower level of emissions (at least 50% lower by 2050) in order to try to ensure greater fairness of energy availability. Accordingly, developed countries like the UK, will need to reduce their CO² emissions from 1990 levels by at least 80%, and probably closer to 95% by 2050.
• CNCC believes that because the costs of the unmitigated impacts of climate change are likely to be many times the costs of tackling climate change, Northern Ireland must take immediate and long term action to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. CNCC regards any attempts to justify inaction on the grounds of cost as unacceptable.

1. BACKGROUND

Though climate change is one of the greatest challenges we face, action to tackle it is thin on the ground. There is no doubt that man is influencing the composition of the atmosphere and as a result, affecting the earth’s climate. As long ago as 2001, the IPCC said

“Is the Earth’s climate changing? The answer is unequivocally “Yes”. (3)

The unequivocal nature of the IPCC’s statements is indicative of the growing scientific consensus that the climate is changing. The evidence for change comes from marine, freshwater, forest and mountain ecosystems and from all corners of the world - from glacier melting in the Alps and Andes to sea level rise in Tuvalu – a small island state in the Pacific Ocean which has concluded a deal with New Zealand to evacuate the entire 10,000 population (4) - and the mangrove forests of the Sunderbans along the coasts of India and Bangladesh - which threatens millions of people and species such as the Bengal tiger. The break up of the Larsson B ice shelf in Antarctica in 2002 provided a stark demonstration of how gradual changes in the climate can, on occasion, precipitate very sudden, large scale, irreversible changes. The impacts of climate change on people and nature could potentially be catastrophic unless we act now and change our habits, and key to this will be energy policy and energy supply.

1.2. Greenhouse gases, global temperature rise and the 2°C target.

In 1996 the EU adopted a target, based on IPCC findings, to ensure global temperatures do not rise by more 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This same target was reiterated by the EU and UK at the G8 summit in Germany in 2007 and by the UN Human Development Report of 2007 (5).

However achieving this target is only likely to be possible if we drastically cut our global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere, by at least 50% globally by 2050.According to recent research, an average global warming of 2°C by 2050 will result in dangerous and irreversible impacts (IPCC 2001 and PIK 2004 (6)) to the planet. These could result in an additional:

• 228 million people at risk from malaria
• 12 million people at risk from hunger as crop yields fall
• 2,240 million people at risk from water shortages, particularly in the sub-tropics
• 200 million people at risk from coastal flooding

The problem is, temperatures have already increased by approximately 0.8°C in the 20th Century with recent warming growing at 0.2°C per decade (7,10). Though this ties in very closely with the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007) figures of 0.74°C rise, significantly, it is higher. The IPCC’s 2007 figures were themselves higher than the 0.6°C temperature rise predicted in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report of 2001. It is noteworthy that since 1980, Ireland’s average temperatures have risen by 0.44°C (0.79F) per decade, approximately twice the average global rate (8).

Since gases like Carbon Dioxide (CO²) remain active in the atmosphere for many years, with approximately one third of the CO² remaining in the atmosphere after 100 years and approximately one fifth of the CO² remaining for more than 1,000 years (9), there will inevitably be further temperature rises, predicted to be around 0.6°C (10), though this is also likely to rise as our emissions continue to rise. This leaves a very narrow window of time and temperature rise to act if we are to avoid dangerous climate change. The inevitability of further warming and change due to this long residence time of CO², also means that as well as mitigation, adaptation must be an integral part of future policies across the board, including, but not limited to, managing biodiversity and planning.

The primary cause of these changes, especially the most recently observed ones, is our combustion of fossil fuels with 80% of man-made CO² emissions due to the burning of these fuels, the remainder due to deforestation and cement production. As fossil fuels continue to be burned to provide heat, electricity, transport fuels and chemicals, increasing quantities of CO² are produced. CO² is one of the greenhouse gases that warms the planet by reflecting much of the sun’s energy that once radiated out from the surface of the earth, which would otherwise escape into space. While life could not exist on Earth without this warming effect, CO² is being pumped into the atmosphere at excessive and unnatural rates and this is causing excessive warming that is contributing to climate change.

Global temperature rise is linked to increasing concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere. Though the concentration of CO² in the atmosphere reached 387 parts per million (ppm) in 2008, the highest level for the last 650,000 years, (11) if we count other GHGs, like methane, which also have a warming effect, together these approach the equivalent of approximately 440 ppm CO² equivalent (or 440 ppm CO² eq). If we could stabilise at today’s atmospheric concentration of GHGs, it has been estimated there is a more than 50% probability that we will not exceed the 2°C threshold. However this is highly unlikely because CO² levels are rising faster than ever before, at 1.9 parts per million (ppm) annually (10) (the average increase 1960-2005 was 1.4 ppm annually) (11). As was outlined in the Stern report, (12) at 450 ppm CO² eq. the chances of staying below the 2°C threshold in the long term is around 50%. It is generally accepted that we need to ensure we give ourselves at least this 50/50 chance of staying below the 2°C target and given that the UK is and has been a disproportionate consumer of energy and producer of CO², stabilising atmospheric GHGs at that level means UK GHG emissions need to fall by 80-95% by 2050. It is worth noting that even a 2°C temperature rise has associated risks and some commentators, most notably James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has said the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO² is no more than 350 ppm (13)

2. TARGETS FOR TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE AND REDUCING EMISSIONS

2.1 EU

The EU has three main climate change and energy-related goals for 2020: namely to reduce energy consumption through energy efficiency by 20%, to reduce GHG emissions by 20% and to have 20% of energy supplied from renewable sources. According to the terms of the EU package of measures announced on 23rd January 2008, one of the UK’s legally binding targets is to achieve a 15% share of renewables in the final energy demand by 2020. A series of interim targets were also agreed by the EU on the following basis: member states must achieve a 25% of their 2005-2020 renewables increase by 2012, 35% by 2014, 45% by 2016, and 65% by 2018. Together these targets would make up an "indicative trajectory" that each member states would be expected to follow. Since the EU Energy package looks at overall energy, which includes electricity, heating and transport demands, it is anticipated that in order to comply with this directive the amount of electricity from renewables in the UK will need to increase up to ten-fold – to approximately 40% from the 2007 levels of approximately 4%.

2.2 UK

The UK government is taking steps to address climate change and redress the balance to the natural world. In December 2008, the UK Climate Change Bill with both medium term (2020) and long term (2050) targets for reductions in CO² emissions gained Royal Assent and became law. This is the first such bill in the world and should be welcomed as a sign of global leadership on climate change.

Further to the advice of the Climate Change Committee (CCC) in October 2008 of the need for an 80% reduction in CO² emissions by 2050 the bill included this amended target. This 80% target reflects the evidence of the need for a global cut in emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere by at least 50% by 2050 because in order to achieve this global reduction of 50%, industrialised countries will need to reduce their emissions by at least 80% by 2050. However it is important to note that some commentators, including senior IPCC scientists, have argued that even with an 80% cut in emissions damages will be significant and much more substantial adaptation efforts than those currently planned will be required to avoid much of the damage (14), and the reductions need to be of the order of 90% by 2050.

The Welsh Assembly Government’s (WAG’s) Renewable Energy Route Map targets include generating 100% of Wales’ electricity demand from renewable sources within the next 20 years or sooner, that demand should not exceed the electricity consumption level of 2007, that all new buildings should be zero carbon by 2011 and supporting the development of distributed generation and energy supply companies.

Scotland revised its target to produce 40% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020 upwards at the end of 2007 to 50% by 2012, having already met its 2010 target to produce 16% of its electricity from renewables in 2007. Scotland also has a target to reduce its CO² emissions by 80% by 2050 through the Scottish Climate Change bill. According to a 2003 report by WWF Scotland (15) nearly 50,000 new jobs could be created in Scotland in sectors such as wave and wind energy, recycling, public transport and organic farming, in addition to the 80,000 jobs that already existed.

Northern Ireland’s target as of 2008 by comparison is to have only 12% of electricity generated from renewable resources by 2012, though this will be reviewed as part of the redrafting of DETI’s Strategic Energy Framework (SEF) in 2009, and at present has no long term (beyond 2030) CO² emissions reduction target. Though the potential for renewable energy sources such as wind and wave power are undoubtedly larger in Scotland than Northern Ireland, the potential in Northern Ireland is significant and should be explored and higher targets for the production of electricity from renewable sources in Northern Ireland set. Given the significant win-win economic benefits of investing in the development of renewable energy resources, CNCC believes that this should be progressed as a matter of urgency.

2.3 Republic of Ireland and all island issues

The Republic of Ireland (RoI) is planning to introduce a Climate Protection Act which will include a target of 80% reduction in CO² emissions by 2050, with an annual reduction of 3%. Launching his second Carbon Budget in October 2008 Mr John Gormley (Green Party), Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government in the Republic of Ireland proposed an number of significant measures including increasing to 40% the target for electricity from renewable sources by 2020. This (40%) is roughly the level that was found to be feasible by a recent all-island grid study which reported in 2007 and concluded that a 42% contribution from renewable energy sources was possible by 2020. This has important implications for Northern Ireland given the single, all-island energy market.

Minister Gormley also proposed a plan to develop a strategy to have up to 10% of the road transport fleet electrically powered by 2020 and a plan to set up a high-level group to advise on the development of Ireland's Green Economy. Gordon Brown has outlined his intention to have all new cars sold in Britain to be electric or hybrid vehicles producing less than 100 g/km of CO² by 2020. In the light of this push for more electric vehicles in both the Republic of Ireland and across the UK, and the huge potential that exists in Northern Ireland for wind power, Northern Ireland really needs to grasp the opportunity offered by the electrification of the transport network as a matter of urgency. Some of the major car manufacturers already offer electric versions of established models and more are likely to come on line in the near future. Considering the previously identified economic benefits from investing in renewables, CNCC believes the Northern Ireland administration should work closely with the UK and Republic of Ireland governments in developing the opportunities for electric vehicles in relation to these proposals and ultimately should set firm targets for the electrification of Northern Ireland’s transport system.

2.4 Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland also has an important part to play in addressing climate change and setting Northern Ireland specific emissions reductions targets, equal to or greater than those in the UK Climate Change Bill, would be an important step. The Carbon Trust Vision Study (CTVS) (16) published in 2005 outlined how Northern Ireland could reduce its CO² emissions by 60% by 2050 and estimated the cost of achieving this at £775 million. While both the 60% target is now generally regarded as insufficient and the costs of achieving it will likely have risen since the report was produced, in the absence of any Northern Ireland wide long term energy strategy the CTVS should provide a useful blueprint for how Northern Ireland can move towards a low carbon economy.

Though no Northern Ireland specific targets have yet been developed as part of the EU energy package or the UK Climate Change Bill, in order to facilitate the achievement of the national and international targets and also to guide the development of energy policy in Northern Ireland, CNCC believes there is a need for a long term (e.g. up to 2050) Northern Ireland energy strategy which sets much more ambitious targets for the generation of renewable energy in Northern Ireland than currently exists.

2.4.1. The need for Northern Ireland targets

CNCC considers that the 2007 Northern Ireland Programme for Government (PfG) should have been more ambitious in setting future renewable energy targets; the mere restating of already-published targets is unacceptable. It is also regrettable that the targets for the reduction of Northern Ireland’s carbon footprint (stated to be 25% by 2025) are set below those of the comparable UK targets, both in terms of time scale and amount of reduction aimed for.

In addition, given that the interim target in the Climate Change Bill is to reduce CO² emissions by at least 26% by 2020 against a 1990 baseline, a target to reduce Northern Ireland’s carbon footprint by 25% by 2025 is also well below the comparable UK target, in terms of both the level of reduction and the time by which this has to be achieved, again reflective of a lack of ambition in Northern Ireland.

3. TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE AND REDUCING EMISSIONS

The good news is that recent research suggests that a reduction in CO² of 80% by 2050 is achievable. According to “80% Challenge: Delivering a low carbon Britain” (17) a report published by the Institute for Public Policy Research, the RSPB and WWF in October 2007, the UK can reduce its CO² emissions by 80% by 2050, without new nuclear generation, and including international aviation and shipping emissions. Moreover, the level of economic growth predicted in the report would still be achieved by 2052, just 18 months later than would otherwise be expected, though with the most recent trends in the UK and global economy, previous predictions of the rates of economic growth may be less reliable.

When tackling climate change we must also take account of the impact of forests and oceans, both of which act as sinks because they absorb CO². The seemingly relentless felling of rainforest needs to be stopped, not only on ecological and humanitarian grounds, but also because, as the IPCC have pointed out, deforestation is now the third largest source of CO² emissions globally, accounting for approximately 20% of GHG emissions, behind coal and oil. To tackle climate change we need to reduce deforestation, and buying sustainable wood products, with the FSC logo, is one way of doing that.Disappointingly no targets for emissions reductions were set at the UN discussions on climate change in Bali in December 2007 and in effect decisions were deferred until the next meeting due in Copenhagen in 2009, though there was agreement on the need to reduce deforestation which is a timely and welcome first step.

The oceans have absorbed approximately half of all accumulated emissions since the industrial revolution began (18), slowing the effects of climate change. The addition of these gases to the seas however has meant the oceans have become more acidic. If this trend continues unchecked, it could inhibit calcareous shell formation, which would affect crustaceans, which are a major source of food globally, and coral reefs which comprise just 0.25% of all the oceans but are home to 25% of all fish species. Results of a decade-long study (19), show that in the North Atlantic, the most intense sink for atmospheric CO², uptake of CO² decreased by more than 50% between the mid-nineties and the early 2000s. This may slow down oceanic acidification, but if the seas absorb less CO², then more will go into the atmosphere and increase the warming and climate change.

3.1 Tackling climate change can create economic opportunities

There are also sound business reasons to tackle climate change and move to a low carbon economy, as highlighted in a speech by Gordon Brown at WWF’s One Planet Future seminar in November 2007. He said that globally, the overall added value of the low carbon energy sector could be $3 trillion annually worldwide by 2050, and it could employ more than 25 million people. If Britain maintains its share of this growth there could be over a million people employed in environmental industries within the next two decades.

A recent study by European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions found that the adoption of best available energy conservation technologies could create 500,000 extra jobs in the EU. (20)

A 2008 report by WWF France (21) concluded that a 30% reduction in CO² emissions by 2020 would create around 684,000 new net jobs in France.

The use of alternative power sources such as hydrogen or electric vehicles offer opportunities not just to reduce emissions and have cleaner air but to create jobs, as illustrated by the order for 10 hydrogen buses from the Mayor of London received by a Northern Ireland bus building company in November 2007 (22). Hydrogen has many potentially very exciting applications as an energy source. For example, vehicles powered by hydrogen emit only water and if the hydrogen is produced with electricity from renewable sources, it can be made in a completely green life cycle. Iceland, which aims to have a hydrogen economy by 2040 is leading the way in the use of hydrogen.

Enormous potential exists for renewable energy, and yet currently only approximately 5% of Northern Ireland’s electricity is generated from renewables. This compares to more than 16% in Germany, which has embraced green technology and has around 170,000 people currently employed in green industries. Germany’s Federal Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel has predicted the second package implementing the integrated energy and climate change programme will “create more than 500,000 additional jobs by 2020”. (23) The German government already has a target to cut CO² emissions by 40% against 1990 levels by 2020, which it estimates will generate savings of €5bn in private households and industry by that time, and that on average, every tonne of CO² saved has a saving effect of €26 (24)

The Yorkshire Regional Economic Strategy 2006-2015 found that meeting the region’s targets to reduce GHGs by at least 30% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 and have 22% renewable electricity by 2010 could generate 13,000 new jobs.

Investing in renewables can also have significant economic benefits for Northern Ireland, primarily by ensuring that rather than leaving Northern Ireland, more of the money spent on energy consumed in Northern Ireland will remain in the Northern Ireland economy. According to the DTI’s “Renewable Supply Chain Gap Analysis” produced in association with the Scottish Executive in 2004 more than half a million jobs (564,000) could be created in the UK as a whole from renewable technologies by 2020. Of course, the number of jobs created in Northern Ireland, or any other part of the UK, depends not only on the mix of technologies (wind, solar, wave, biomass and so on) pursued but also on the level of inward investment in these technologies in that region. Based upon those DTI figures, there is the potential to create between 8,000 and 33,000 jobs in Northern Ireland in an industry that could be worth almost £1,000,000,000. The employment potential from investing in renewables was illustrated by a 2006 report by Action Renewables which found that there is potential for 5,600 short term and 400 long term jobs in Northern Ireland from investing in indigenous renewables.

4. THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The primary effect of climate change is an increase in global temperature. This increase has been about 0.8ºC over the past century, but half of this increase has occurred over the last 30 years. Projections suggest that by the end of this century the increase will be between 1.8ºC and 4.0ºC, but many commentators feel that these figures are now likely to be exceeded.

The most obvious result of the rise in global temperature is the melting of ice and snow, both at high latitudes and high altitudes. The melting of sea ice in the Arctic, which threatens the future of the polar bear, is seen as further clear evidence of climate change, and the Arctic summer melting in 2007 set new records. The record minimum of 2007 was 4.3 million km² when ice cover was 39% less than 1979-2000 mean and the lowest for the entire 20th Century based on monitoring from ships and aircraft according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre(NSIDC). According to the NSIDC, the September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 is now approximately 10% per decade, or 72,000 square kilometers (28,000 square miles) per year (25). In December 2007, modelling studies led by Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, which included co-workers at NASA and the Polish Academy of Sciences, indicated that previous projections for sea ice loss were underestimates and that northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers by 2013. It could be argued that this projection of 2013 is already too conservative as Professor Maslowski’s studies used data sets from 1979 to 2004 and did not account for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007 (26). Although this projection of an Arctic sea ice free in summer by 2013 is 30 years ahead of the projections in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of 2007 but it has been supported by other authors (27).

An ice free Arctic Ocean during summer is expected to further amplify warming because rather than being covered in ice, which reflects around 90% of incoming sunlight, the exposed sea will absorb more incoming sunlight which will in turn cause further warming, an example of a positive feedback (a consequence of warming causing further warming).

Frozen groundwater in the tundra regions will also melt, turning solid ground into swamp, and causing vast quantities of carbon stored as frozen organic matter to be released into the atmosphere as it breaks down. This will form another positive feedback mechanism as more greenhouse gases are released, leading to further warming. Arctic ecosystems may be squeezed into significantly smaller islands of high ground, with the resultant loss of both species diversity and genetic diversity.

The melting of so much ice and snow will lead to sea level rising by 20-60cm by the end of the century, resulting in the inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. Large parts of some countries, such as Bangladesh, could disappear under the sea, while many coral atolls will become uninhabitable. Coastal ecosystems like mangrove swamp and saltmarsh will shift inland where there is space for them , but will disappear where the hinterland rises steeply, or where efforts are made to protect the coastline with engineering solutions.

The temperature changes will also lead to shifts in thermo-haline circulation patterns in the world’s oceans leading to changes in weather patterns that are less easy to quantify and predict. Rainfall patterns are likely to change significantly, with some places receiving much more rain and others suffering severe and prolonged droughts. Rainfall seasons may also change significantly, with some times of year becoming much wetter or drier, depending on the location. The semi-arid regions at the fringes of the sub-tropical zone, including the Mediterranean, the southwestern United States, southern Australia and southern Africa, are likely to become significantly drier as the adjacent desert areas spread towards the poles.

This shift of climate zones towards the poles has been highlighted by a study by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NOAA) published in December 2007 (28)

This shift will have a significant effect on vegetation zones, which may be further complicated by the shifts in rainfall. According to the study, the observed widening of the tropical climate zone appears to be occurring faster than climate models predict in their projections of anthropogenic [man-made] climate change.

Perhaps the most noticeable change is likely to be in agriculture, where some arable areas will become impossible to cultivate and revert to pastoral systems, while in other places there may be large changes in the type of crops that can be grown. As agriculture is one of the dominant land uses around the world this will have enormous implications for biodiversity as well as for human societies.

So what about Northern Ireland?

4.1 Climate change and Northern Ireland

4.1.1 Physical Effects of Climate Change

There is no doubt things are changing even on a local level. The State of Environment (2008) report stated (29)

“Climate change is occurring at an increasingly measurable scale”

According to the UK Climate Impacts Partnership report of 2007, temperatures in Northern Ireland have already risen by about 0.8°C since about 1980. (30)

As outlined in the 2007 SNIFFER report, (31) “Preparing for a changing climate in Northern Ireland”, the climate of Northern Ireland is already changing. Air temperature is rising and the number of hot days is increasing; the proportion of rainfall in summer is decreasing, while winters are slightly wetter (EHS 2004). These changes are expected to accelerate over the coming century. Average temperature may rise by 3°C or more and summer rainfall may fall by up to 50% while winters may be 25% wetter (Hulme et al., 2002). In light of recent flooding problems, this is a worrying scenario.

In addition, this projected shift in precipitation patterns and distribution is likely to have a number of impacts on Ireland’s biodiversity, agriculture and water availability. According to Sweeny et al (8) large parts of the south east of Ireland, around counties Cork, Waterford and Wexford, as well as Wicklow, Dublin, Louth and Down could receive less than half their current summer rainfall. On this basis the summer flow of the Boyne is predicted to drop by as much as 20% by the 2020s and up to 40% by the end of the century.

Further evidence of the potential impact of climate change in Northern Ireland was provided by the National Trust report Shifting Shores (35) the likely changes in the Northern Ireland climate include

• Annual temperatures in Northern Ireland are predicted to increase by between 1.5°C and 2°C along the east coast and between 1°C and 2.5°C on the north coast by the 2080s. The greatest warming is likely to occur in the autumn although warming is also expected to be greater in summer than winter.
• Wetter winters and dries summers. There is evidence that our winters have been getting wetter and our summers drier, relative to each other. During this century winter precipitation is likely to increase by up to 20% and summer rainfall to decrease by more than 40%. By the 2080s reductions in soil moisture content of 20% are probable on east and north coasts in the summer.
• Sea level rise of between 85cm and 100cm likely by 2100.
• Increased frequency of extreme storm surge events/water elevations. The present day 1 in 50 year extreme surges are likely to happen every 1 in 3 years by 2050. By that time the new 1 in 50 year extreme storm events could raise extreme water levels (i.e. flooding levels) by 3-4 metres above today’s mean sea level. This has implications for flooding and as such is an issue for a number of government departments.

The report also highlighted the potential impacts on coastal sites from increased erosion and flooding, changes to degradation and even loss of important habitats and wildlife,

increased land instability, roads and paths becoming unstable and risks to settlements.

4.2 Impacts on Biodiversity

The SNIFFER report, evaluated the implications for a number of sectors and the threats to biodiversity include:

• a change in distribution and species composition of habitats in response to warmer winters
• an increase in the range of invasive non-native species in response to warmer temperatures
• intertidal habitats, salt marshes and mudflats threatened through flooding and erosion
• loss of coastal grazing marsh
• estuarine and river ecology threatened by tidal flooding
• warmer sea temperatures affecting phytoplankton communities – the resulting decline in sand eel populations would adversely affect a wide range of seabirds

A number of studies have modelled and mapped the response of different species and habitats to the projected changes. These include the MONARCH project (Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate change) (34) was a seven year phased programme to assess impacts of projected climate change in Britain and Ireland and it has amongst other things examined the potential impacts on 120 UK BAP (Biodiversity Action Plan) species. When MONARCH then examined 32 of those species in greater detail it found that more than 90% (29) showed a substantial change in climate space over the timescale of the scenarios used (up to 2080). Species like the Song Thrush were found to be at risk of almost complete loss of suitable climate space, while other species such as the Lesser Horseshoe Bat, that is close to the northern limits of its range could become much more widespread. Some species may show little change in abundance but a shift in distribution, while others, such as the Tree Sparrow, may show little or no change in climate space.

Similar results have been mapped for birds in “A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds”, and for butterflies in “The Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies”. These show that as temperatures rise the majority of species will try to move northwards across Europe, but that for some this will not be possible. Changes in land use patterns mean that suitable areas of habitat are now often small and too far apart for sedentary species to travel between them. The impacts will vary depending on the habitat involved.

A report by the National Botanic Gardens in Ireland in November 2007 revealed a fifth of Ireland’s native plant life is under threat from climate change with 171 species of flora out of Ireland’s 850 species facing possible extinction by 2050, with a further 74 species on the Irish endangered list at risk of being pushed closer to extinction, including the Irish Ladies Tresses orchid, one of 37 UK priority species which occurs in Northern Ireland and Pyramidal bugle, which is protected under the 1985 Wildlife Order.

4.2.1 Marine and coastal

On Rathlin island, significant decreases in breeding success, which in some cases are total failures, have already been observed in seabird populations and similar failures in breeding success have been observed along the islands of the west coast of Scotland. It seems that a major factor in that decline is a decrease in sand eels, which again in turn appears to be the result of climate change and warming waters and reflects the predictions made by the SNIFFER report. However, the potential impact of increased storminess, which can have a negative effect on sea bird survival, may also be a contributing factor.

Shifts in species and habitats within Northern Ireland will vary. The thick toothed topshell (an intertidal mollusc) is shifting northwards along the County Down coast and this may be a response to climate change. However, not all species will be able to respond in this way – the UK Biodiversity Standing Committee suggested that climate change posed a significant risk to between 5-25% of UK BAP species. Whilst the serious implications of this are clear, what is also clear from the range of this estimate is how difficult it is to predict likely outcomes for species that already are under threat.

Shifting Shores predicted that the Giants Causeway, Northern Ireland’s only World Heritage Site and most visited tourist attraction, is likely to experience increased erosion from wetter winters, drier summers and more frequent and longer lasting storms. These conditions will have impacts on the habitats and species of the site including coastal saltmarsh and vegetated shingle and the narrow mouthed whorl snail (the only location for this species in Northern Ireland) which are of European significance.

Shifting Shores also evaluated the potential impact on Murlough, a six thousand year old dune system and one of the largest sand dune complexes in Northern Ireland which contains about 15% of the total UK resource of coastal dune heathland. Murlough was Northern Ireland’s first nature reserve, designated in 1967 and is home to 334 species of moth and butterfly, including a significant population of Marsh Fritillary, a butterfly of European importance, which is also protected under the European Habitats Directive of 1992, as well as 326 kinds of plants, 150 species of beetle and 53 breeding bird species. Shifting Shores highlighted the risk of between 50 and 400 metres of existing dune frontage being eroded away by 2100. The loss of so much dune frontage could have a devastating effect on the huge community of flora and fauna in Murlough.

Strangford Lough is Northern Ireland’s most protected marine site, for example it is a Special Area of Conservation under the Habitats Directive and Northern Ireland’s only Marine Nature Reserve. Shifting Shores predicted that sea level could rise here by up to 25 cm. A 20 cm rise could result in the submergence of 20-30 metres of tidal mud flats, home to the marine grass Zostera a vital food source for around 80% of the East Canadian High Arctic population of Light Bellied Brent Geese that come to Strangford each autumn, as well as a host of other wildfowl and waders including shelduck, redshank, dunlin and oystercatcher. The movement of fine sediment from these mudflats into deeper water could have a disastrous effect on the already threatened Horse Mussel (Modiolus) community, and the efforts to re-establish it.

Furthermore, in 2005 DEFRA stated sea surface temp increased by 0.5°C from 1871 to 2000 and that waters around the UK have been warming since 1980’s with the trend more pronounced in the southern North Sea and Irish Sea than elsewhere (36). It has also been observed by the Sir Alistair Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science that in the NE Atlantic cold water plankton have moved northwards by 10° latitude. Both of these changes could have major impacts on species higher up the food chain, including cod. There also seems to be evidence of a change in the distribution of basking sharks, which seems to be more concentrated around the SW of England and this could be in response to changes in the distribution of plankton, and in turn climate change.

As on land, arrivals of new species have been recorded with an increased North coast presence of blue finned tuna, sunfish, and leather backed turtles. The Red Mullet, a Mediterranean species has reportedly become so common off Ireland’s coasts that they are being landed commercially for the first time (32).

Since Northern Ireland lies at the confluence of distributions of southern Lusitanian and Mediterranean species with those of sub arctic species, a warming of sea temperatures could well be signalled by population changes in both groups in our waters.

4.2.2 Upland habitats

The projected changes in precipitation, in particular the decrease in summer rainfall, could also have a negative effect on Ireland’s peatlands. By 2075, it is estimated that almost half of Ireland’s peatlands will have gone (32). Many of Ireland’s peatlands are ancient, with some dating back to the end of the last ice age, but across Ireland as a whole only approximately 21% of the area of original blanket bog and 9% of the area of original raised bog remains in a state worthy of conservation or of conservation importance and this is a matter of concern. (33) Having already experienced such high rates of loss, any further potential loss of such an ancient habitat so deeply ingrained in Irish history, society and culture and home to rare and unusual plants and animals including the carnivorous sundew and butterwort and the Irish hare, would indeed be a serious matter and a great shame.

The breakdown of the peat will also add to the problem in a different way, through the loss of the carbon stored within it. As it dries out this will oxidize, leading to further release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, thereby accelerating the greenhouse effect and acting as another positive feedback mechanism. To put this in context, if all the peat in the UK were lost it would be the equivalent of the total UK Carbon emissions over 35 years.

The effects of climate change will also be catastrophic for the small remnant populations of montane plants, already clinging on at the tops of our mountains. These would include the Parsley fern (Cryptogramma crispa) and Mountain Saw-wort (Saussaurea alpine) in the Mournes, and Purple saxifrage (Saxifraga oppositifolia) on Benevenagh. Already at the tops of the mountains these plants would have nowhere to go and would become extinct.

4.2.3 Freshwater Habitats

The reduction in summer rainfall and rise in temperatures have serious implications for freshwater habitats, with river flows reduced, lower oxygen levels, and the drying out of many ephemeral wetlands. These latter habitats are of critical importance to our two species of amphibian, the frog and the smooth newt, which are already under pressure from habitat loss due to land drainage and pollution.

According to Hickey (32) a list of Ireland’s seven most critically endangered creatures has been drawn up and at the top of the list is the Atlantic salmon, another species protected under the EU Habitats Directive. Indeed a 2007 report by the UK to the European Commission produced as part of the reporting process of Article 17 of the Habitats Directive described the prospects for salmon as ‘poor’. The Atlantic salmon faces a number of threats including overfishing and fish farming and inappropriately low water quality but it appears that an additional factor affecting Atlantic salmon is climate change. Warming in rivers is an additional stress on salmon and also means salmon are tending to leave rivers for the sea earlier, leaving them out of synch with the peak abundance of their food.

Indeed, since, according to Hickey (32), four of the other seven most critically endangered species, namely the Freshwater Pearl Mussel, the Nore Pearl Mussel, the Twaite Shad and the Pollan are also freshwater species, the quality of our lakes and rivers needs to be a higher priority than at present. Unfortunately however, t he percentage of rivers achieving good biological quality in 2006 was lower in Northern Ireland (54%) than England (71%), Scotland (88%) or Wales (82%) (40). For rivers In England, Scotland and Wales the percentage achieving good biological quality had risen since 2000, whereas in Northern Ireland the level had fallen, from 61% in 2000 to 54% in 2006. While the monitoring network in Northern Ireland expanded since 2000, this performance in terms of water quality is poor and is unlikely to help our freshwater species. It is a matter of concern that this already poor level of water quality is likely to be exacerbated by climate change in a number of ways including lower flows (mainly in summer), lower water quality due to lower oxygen levels, algal blooms, increased rainfall (mainly in winter) causing erosion of soil and leaching of agrichemical and agricultural wastes, storms causing more combined sewer overflows, higher evaporation and risks from invasive species.

In light of the aims and requirements of the Water Framework Directive (WFD), to achieve good quality status in our freshwater by 2015, but also the requirements of the Habitats Directive to protect habitats and species designated as Special Areas of Conservation, and because of the overall importance of our freshwater bodies for Ireland’s plants and animals, it is clear that a much higher standard of water quality is needed across the island. The need for improvement was further demonstrated by the admission by the NI Environment Agency that more than 200 of Northern Ireland’s rivers are defined as “polluted beyond acceptable levels” and that 66 rivers also failed to meet the quality criteria outlined under the EC Freshwater Fish Directive with regards to supporting fish life. (41)

It is CNCC’s hope that in addition to full compliance with the WFD, significant improvements in the quality of Northern Ireland’s entire freshwater system will be achieved and as a matter of urgency.

4.2.4 Woodlands

Climate change will have consequences for our woodlands, affecting both semi-natural and man-made habitats. The decrease in summer rainfall will put many trees under water stress as soils dry out, while increased storminess will lead to more wind damage in the winters. A study of Dartmoor suggests that western sessile oakwoods could disappear from South West England by the end of the century, with the consequent loss of a huge associated flora and fauna, from mosses and liverworts to Pied Flycatchers.

4.2.5 Agricultural Land

Changes in climate will inevitably lead to changes in agriculture, with a probable shift from grass-based livestock systems to more arable production. This will have inevitable consequences for wildlife since agriculture is the dominant land use across most of Northern Ireland, and forms the main barrier to the movement of species from one patch of habitat to another.

Any drop is summer rainfall could also have an impact on agricultural production. According to Sweeney et al, the predicted decrease in summer rainfall may no longer suit the growing of potatoes, and as a result “It is likely that potatoes will no longer be a commercially viable crop over much of Ireland”. (8) Evidence for a change in potato growing was provided by Hickey (32) who stated that in 2001, perhaps 15% of Ireland’s potato crop was being irrigated. Eventually more of the potato crop may be replaced by maize, which is likely to become a dominant crop while soybeans may also become a marginal specialist crop (8). Agriculture may change in other ways. For example, increased warming as well as increased storminess could have a negative impact on the Orchard County’s most famous agricultural product, as apples need a certain amount of cold to complete their development.

4.2.6 Migratory species

Wildfowl and waders migrate to and from breeding areas in arctic and subarctic regions, overwintering in Northern Ireland. Terns, hirundines and other species like cuckoo move north into Northern Ireland from sub-Saharan Africa in order to breed here. Shifts in weather patterns could impact on the energy balance of migration patterns, for example an increase in frequency of headwinds due to shifts in the tracks of weather systems. Changes in weather in northern breeding areas could impact on breeding ecology – for example it has been suggested that breeding of light bellied brent geese may suffer from incursions of normally more southerly breeding birds, causing increased competition for limited food resources, and predation from hitherto unfamiliar predators. For the brent, already breeding in Canada’s most northerly islands, there is literally nowhere to go further north. To the south, expansion of the Sahara could threaten survival of swallows, house martin and various species of warbler coming to Northern Ireland to breed, by expanding the distance of hostile terrain they are required to cross.

With 2°C of warming there is also a risk that almost 20,000 dunlin, which come to Northern Ireland’s shores in large numbers from October to March, could lose almost half of their Arctic breeding grounds over the next 20 years. If climate change continues at current levels, the earth will have warmed by 2°C (3.6 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels (c. 1750) some time between 2026 and 2060, leading to the loss of summer sea ice as well as important habitats for its wildlife. (37)

4.2.7 Invasive species

Finally, the major threat to native habitats and species from invasive alien species must always be guarded against as far as possible. With a warming Irish climate the situation is even more pressing as many may thrive better in such conditions. Co-ordination between both administrations on the island of Ireland is essential – for example, the arrival of zebra mussels in Northern Ireland was probably of animals that had bred in waterways south of the border. By contrast, the arrival of Sargassum muticum in Strangford Lough is thought to have been due to importation of seed oysters. Policies and practices, especially at ports and airports should be aimed at complete prevention. However, this may not always work, and there need to be well resourced fall-back procedures to eliminate certain aliens before they have a chance to become established on a widespread basis, when, experience has shown from the above examples, they are almost impossible to eliminate.

In some cases, little or nothing can be done to prevent certain alien species expanding their range to include the island of Ireland. For example, the Little Egret, common in the Mediterranean and Africa has become a breeding resident along the south coast of Ireland (7) and has made its way to the shores of Strangford Lough.

4.3 Adapting to climate change

In the course of developing the UK Biodiversity Strategy and the subsequent England Biodiversity Strategy, the Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) has developed a set of principles to guide the process of adaptation to climate change. These principles are fundamental to conserving biodiversity, and while many of their elements are not new, they demand a new impetus with the pressures and threats presented by a rapidly changing climate. CNCC believes that these principles need to be adopted here in Northern Ireland to guide our approach to adaptation.

The five main principles are :-

1. Take practical action now. We cannot wait to gather every last piece of evidence that change is taking place, but need to move with greater urgency to
   • Conserve our existing biodiversity
   • Conserve our protected areas and all other high quality habitats as the current biodiversity hotspots. We must press forward with our programme of designating Areas of Special Scientific Interest (ASSIs) which is now 15 years behind schedule. It is planned to complete the network of approximately 400 sites by 2016, but this target is under pressure as more resources are required to monitor and manage the sites already designated. In spite of this there are concerns about the condition of many of our ASSIs, as highlighted in the recent NIEA Assessment completed in 2008, which showed that overall 31% of the features for which sites had been designated were in unfavourable condition. This overall figure masked some habitats, such as freshwater and woodland, for which the figures were very much worse.
   • Reduce sources of harm not linked to climate change. Species and habitats faced with other threats, such as pollution, fragmentation, or invasion by alien species will be much more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Implementing the Water Framework Directive is a good example of how this might be achieved for freshwater habitats.
   • Use existing biodiversity legislation and international agreements. We have a considerable body of legislation to protect our biodiversity, and we need to use it more effectively. The recent review of the Wildlife Order should provide a major step in the right direction, with a number of loopholes being closed and outstanding issues addressed. CNCC remain concerned about both the level of fines and sentences that are imposed for “wildlife crime” and the perception of the seriousness of such offences in the eyes of the judiciary.
2. Maintain and increase ecological resistance .
   • Conserve the range and ecological variability of habitats and species. It is vital to maintain the diversity, in terms of physical features, of our ecosystems. This will often involve active management through grazing, cutting of vegetation, removal of unwanted species, and control of water levels. Mechanisms such as agri-environment schemes must be used to effect this management on land that is not owned or managed by the government or conservation NGOs.
   • Maintain existing ecological networks. Northern Ireland has a highly fragmented biodiversity resource. Much of the landscape is now intensively farmed with impoverished biodiversity. Wildlife corridors like good quality hedgerows, strips of woodland, naturally structured rivers and streams, are now a scarce commodity, but can provide a vital lifeline for species. Where we have areas of quality habitat like blanket bogs, these are already occupying the only areas that are suitable for them, though reversal of inappropriate forestry policies may help to some extent. The situation is similar for marine habitats and species – there are few areas of the Irish sea or along the north coast that have not been adversely impacted by fishing activity, but the contiguous nature of the marine environment is such that at least for those species producing dispersing planktonic larvae there are opportunities for transfer. As on land however, many species both dependent on certain habitats, or keystone species for habitats, may lack this ability.
   • Create buffer zones round high quality habitats. One of the problems of our ASSI legislation is that only areas that are of exceptional scientific interest can be designated, so that the boundaries of such sites are vulnerable to pressures from outside sources. It is important that we seek methods of creating buffer zones around our most important sites, if necessary by acquisition of more land. This has been achieved in a few cases, such as around the Giant’s Causeway World Heritage Site, where the National Trust has followed a long term acquisition policy for both coastal land and the immediate hinterland.
   • Take prompt action to control the spread of invasive species. The major threat to native habitats and species from invasive alien species must always be guarded against as far as possible. With a warming Irish climate the situation is even more pressing as many may thrive better in such conditions. Co-ordination between both administrations on the island of Ireland is essential – for example, the arrival of Zebra mussels in Northern Ireland was probably of animals that had bred in waterways south of the border. By contrast, the arrival of Sargassum muticum in Strangford Lough is thought to have been due to importation of seed oysters. Policies and practices, especially at ports and airports should be aimed at complete prevention. However, this may not always work, and there need to be well resourced fall-back procedures to eliminate certain aliens before they have a chance to become established on a widespread basis, when, experience has shown from the above examples, they are almost impossible to eliminate.In some cases, little or nothing can be done to prevent certain alien species expanding their range to include the island of Ireland. For example, the Little Egret, common in the Mediterranean and Africa, has already become a breeding resident along the south coast of Ireland (7) and has made its way to the shores of Strangford Lough.
3. Accommodate change . Conservation is essentially the management of change, and the pressures of climatic change bring this into a sharper focus. As populations change and move they will interact in different and novel ways with other species and habitats. We must :-
   • Understand that change is inevitable. Habitats have never been static, and we need to find ways to work with the process of change rather than always trying to hold it back.
   • Make space for the natural development of rivers and coasts. As sea levels rise many coastal habitats such as salt marsh or mudflat will become squeezed up against the shoreline, which is generally controlled and protected by man. Unless we are prepared to make room for these habitats by abandoning what we have considered to be “dry land” they will disappear. There is an urgent need to survey the coastline of Northern Ireland to identify where we can make this space in the process known as “managed retreat”. CNCC would recommend that a pilot study is commenced immediately to create a plan for how sea level rise is managed around the shores of Strangford Lough, where a wide range of coastal habitats occur, most of them designated as National Nature Reserve or ASSI, as well as a wide range of human activities, ranging from intensive agriculture to aviation. This process could then be extended to the rest of the coastline.
   • Establish ecological networks through habitat restoration and creation. Species and habitats vary enormously in their abilities to adjust to climate changes. Mobile species like insects and birds have already demonstrated their capacity to move, and ‘jump’ over unsuitable terrain, but successful re-establishment in new areas is still often dependent on the ability to find new suitable habitat - if it exists. Other groups, for example terrestrial molluscs, slow propagating plants like orchids and habitats like woodlands, are unlikely to be able to adjust in the timescales available unless given a ‘helping hand’. The creation of wildlife corridors linking existing patches of habitat is one way of achieving this. Such corridors would include well managed hedgerows, woodland strips connecting areas of mature/ancient woodland,and interconnecting wetlands and water bodies to allow populations to migrate slowly, provided the management of such features is consistent over a long timescale. To achieve this, it is vital that planning, site designation, and agricultural policies are reviewed to accommodate this need. This landscape scale conservation work is being looked at by a wide range of bodies in Northern Ireland but requires strategic direction and well directed funding policies.
   • Species translocation and ex-situ conservation. . While translocation should only be considered as a last resort because of feasibility, appropriateness and resource implications, it may, nonetheless be an option in certain cases where the source population is doomed in some way, for example complete loss of habitat from climatic causes or from development.
   • Respond to changing conservation priorities. We need to recognise that we will be working with a potentially different community of species and habitats in our management of Northern Ireland’s environment. Any new arrivals will most likely migrate from the Republic of Ireland, but could come from Britain, continental Europe, and in the marine environment from anywhere on the western waters of Europe or even further afield. We will need to identify susceptible areas and review their management regimes, which may include accepting that the conservation value may decline, which in turn could necessitate putting possible additional resources into other areas.
4. Integrate action across partners and sectors . Biodiversity and natural ecosystems are generally undervalued when economic models are used to assess competing uses for land and resources, in spite of growing evidence of their importance in providing critical services such as clean water, carbon storage and flood relief. The scale of adaptation to climate change that is required is so large that it is vital to integrate conservation with economic activities rather than see them in constant competition. This requires us to :-
   • Integrate adaptation and mitigation measures. Biodiversity can play an important role in carbon capture and storage, in peatland and woodland for example.
   • Integrate policy and practice across relevant economic sectors. Adaptation measures can provide many wider benefits for society and it is important that these linkages are recognised and built on. Funding and delivery of adaptation is too great a burden for conservation organisations on their own, and it is essential that other beneficiaries, such as health services and water management bodies, become involved in effective delivery.
   • Build and strengthen partnerships. The scale of adaptation and ecosystem conservation means that progress is dependent on large numbers of stakeholders, from individuals and communities to businesses and government bodies. While creating and maintaining partnerships can be time-consuming and create problems, adaptation strategies will only be successful if all relevant parties are involved and committed from the start. We are fortunate in Northern Ireland that our conservation bodies have a long history of working together, but this requires new approaches to joint working with partners that have not been considered previously. In addition we have a poor record of Government Departments working together which needs to be addressed if we are to make progress.
   • Raise awareness of the benefits of the natural environment to society. The campaign to raise awareness, “Biodiversity – its in our Nature” ran in 2006-7, and succeeded in raising awareness levels about biodiversity with a series of events and extensive media coverage. However spontaneous awareness and understanding of biodiversity still remains low in the general population, and a continued effort is required. In particular it appears that there is little or no appreciation of the relationship between climate change and biodiversity, and the need for adaptation. This problem should be addressed in conjunction with messages about the environmental services provided by natural ecosystems.
5. Develop knowledge and plan strategically . While considerable uncertainty remains about the effects and consequences of climate change we do have enough information to predict the general trends and the responses of many species. Using this information we can plan for the future and develop strategies to minimise the effects of climate change on our biodiversity. At the same time it is important to continue research and modelling of both our climate and its impact on our natural ecosystems so that we can continuously improve our adaptation measures. Specific actions would include:-
   • Assessment of the vulnerability of different species. Some work has been done through the Monarch project and other work, and this approach can be built on to develop priorities for action.
   • Piloting of new approaches. Assessments need to be made of different approaches, particularly when developing large-scale measures to link small patches of habitat to provide corridors for movement and spread of populations. There is work of this sort going on across Britain and Europe that we can draw on, without having to repeat it for Northern Ireland, though it may be necessary to seek some purely local solutions.
   • Identify the win-win solutions. These are measures that either deliver several adaptation measures at once and/or bring other social and economic benefits. Success with this sort of approach is likely to lead to further opportunities for cross-sectoral working.
   • Improve the understanding of the role of biodiversity in providing ecosystem services. Support for adaptation will be greatly enhanced if a wide range of people and bodies are more aware of the very real benefits of maintaining biological diversity. There is an urgent need to look at ways of realistically valuing the economic contribution made by ecosystems to human wellbeing and prosperity

4.4 How Northern Ireland’s biodiversity can mitigate climate change and its effects

Careful management of biodiversity, permeating all aspects of our environment and fundamental to all aspects of social and economic development, has considerable potential to mitigate climate change. Conversely, misuse of biodiversity has the potential to make climate change more severe by releasing extra CO² and methane into the atmosphere at a time when we should be reducing it. In Northern Ireland there are several aspects of biodiversity that are relevant to this, both in terms of mitigation and adaptation.

Certain habitats can act as carbon sinks, for example, woodlands and particularly peatlands (both blanket and raised bogs) have considerable potential to lock atmospheric carbon, though in both cases, this only offers benefits in the long term. However, it should be stressed that extraction of peat for fuel and horticultural purposes releases carbon and methane very rapidly. This is a matter of concern especially as methane is 21 times more effective as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide i.e. 1 tonne of methane has the same warming effect as 21 tonnes of CO². It should also be stressed that while retaining Northern Ireland’s peatlands is beneficial to Northern Ireland’s environment, in global terms of climate change and biodiversity, we must ensure that the problem is not displaced to other countries by the replacement of Irish sourced peat with supplies of peat imported from other countries. The virtually pristine peatlands of Russia, Finland. Lithuania and other eastern European countries are now either facing the threat of exploitation for peat and/or are already being exploited for consumption by the horticultural market. This consumption needs to stop.

Peatlands and other wetlands, wet grasslands on floodplains, interdrumlin hollows, and willow carr all have the capacity to retain water, like a sponge. In addition to supporting rich biodiversity, both distinctive and important plant species notably in peatlands and other wetlands, breeding birds (eg waders in lowland wet grasslands), these habitats also regulate water flow. These habitats can not only hold back waters and slow down run-off in periods of excessive rain thereby reducing the impacts of or even potentially preventing flooding, and also act as a source of water to downstream habitats and species in times of drought. Such a function is likely to be of considerable, though unrecognised, economic value.

With some sections of low-lying coast becoming increasingly susceptible to storm events, the conservation of saltmarshes and low-lying marginal farmland can dramatically dampen the effects of severe wave action and in cases of very low-lying areas either eliminate or reduce the need for expensive sea defences. Allowing erosion to take place in other areas, providing a supply of sediments to biodiversity-rich habitats like dune systems and soft cliff areas can all conserve important species whilst stabilizing soft coasts.

4.5 Actions to safeguard Northern Ireland’s biodiversity in relation to climate change

It is important to recognise that, given the predictions of inevitable further climate change, some species and habitats may eventually find life impossible in Northern Ireland. This will be mainly due to direct changes in climate but also could be due to competition from new species that become established here. This is an added worry given the existing threats to and pressures on our biodiversity. The process of designating Northern Irelands ASSIs (Areas of Special Scientific Interest) is already 15 years behind schedule. The previous target, referred to as Target 2001, to complete ASSI designation of approx 400 sites by 2001 was not met. The most recent target is now to complete the ASSI designation process by 2016. Better monitoring and management of ASSIs and other protected areas is essential in a changing climate.

The State of the Environment (SoE) report (29) gives other grounds for concern. For example, of the 271 Northern Ireland priority species in 2004 over 50% were classed as declining (page 118). Only 2 out of the 88 UK priority species occurring in Northern Ireland and reported on as part of UK BAP were increasing. For 58 species there were insufficient data to report on changes and of the remaining, 7 were considered lost from Northern Ireland. Even our most important wildlife sites, for example, those with European designations such as the Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) designated under the EU Habitats Directive, suffered. The SoE report also outlined (page 114) how less than 30% of SAC features were in favourable condition. This level of performance where only 2 out of 88 species are increasing and so many of our protected areas are not in favourable condition can not be acceptable and places Northern Ireland’s biodiversity at even greater risk from threats including climate change. This unfortunate trend must be halted and reversed.

In adapting to climate change we will need to identify susceptible areas and review their management regime, which may include accepting that the conservation value may decline, which in turn could necessitate putting possible additional resources into other areas. However it is also likely that a very wide range of species and habitats in Northern Ireland will continue to survive and even flourish in a warming regime. Three major issues therefore remain:

• To conserve and enhance those native species and habitats that are threatened by climate change
• To account for a potentially different community of species and habitats in our management of Northern Ireland’s environment. Any new arrivals will most likely migrate from the Republic of Ireland, but could come from Britain, continental Europe, and in the marine environment from anywhere on the western waters of Europe or even further afield.
• To control invasive, alien species as these can threaten existing native habitats and species. Some alien species are already present in Northern Ireland and could expand in a new climate regime, while others have an increased potential to thrive if they enter.

Northern Ireland has a highly fragmented biodiversity resource. Much of the landscape is now intensively farmed with impoverished biodiversity. Wildlife corridors like good quality hedgerows, strips of woodland, naturally structured rivers and streams, are now a scarce commodity, but can provide a vital lifeline for species. Where we have areas of quality habitat like blanket bogs, these are already occupying the only areas that are suitable for them, though reversal of inappropriate forestry policies may help to some extent. The situation is similar for marine habitats and species – there are few areas of the Irish sea or along the north coast that have not been adversely impacted by fishing activity, but the contiguous nature of the marine environment is such that at least for those species producing widely dispersing planktonic larvae there are opportunities for transfer. As on land however, many species both dependent on certain habitats, or keystone species for habitats, may lack this ability.

4.6 Other economic and social implications of climate change

The threat to the planet and to people is stark. Seven years ago the World Health Organisation calculated 150,000 people die every year as a direct result of climate change. The area of the world stricken by drought has doubled from 15% to 30% between 1970 and the early 2000s (42). An estimated 25 million people (roughly equal to the combined population of London, New York and Tokyo) are displaced by environmental causes, more than double the 12 million political refugees (43).

The European heatwave of 2003 caused an estimated 40,000 premature deaths and cost $13.5 billion. Based on evidence from ice cores and tree rings, the summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe for 500 years and it is likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding 2003 threshold magnitude. Worringly, the likelihood of such events were predicted to increase 100 fold over the next four decades, with the result that by 2040 more than half of years would be warmer than 2003 (44)

A changing climate also has implications for our economy, both in terms of businesses and householders. According to the WWF Report “Stormy Europe”, the UK would be likely to see the most drastic increase in storm activity if CO² emissions rise unabated. 3 out of 4 models show the number of severe storms would likely increase by up to 25% by the end of the century representing an increase of up to nearly 10 more storms over the 30 year period 2071-2100. This if of particular concern in terms of insurance losses because winter storms are the cause of nearly 70% of all insured losses in Europe, costing an average of over €2 billion in financial losses a year (Munich Re 2000: Climate Risk Management Ltd., 2005). Projections from the UK alone from the Association of British Insurers suggest that by 2050 the annual cost of weather claims will double to €3.3 billion while an extreme year might cost €20 billion.

According to the Stern review (10) the costs action, reducing GHGs to avoid the worst impacts of climate change are between 1% and 2% of global GDP, whereas

“the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.”

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Accounting for the potentially catastrophic risks for the global economy and for people and wildlife, in Northern Ireland and further afield, from inaction as well as the very positive economic, health and general environmental opportunities that greater investment in green technologies and subsequent emissions reductions offers, it CNCC’s view that action to tackle climate change must be a priority for the Northern Ireland administration and that this issue must be tackled on a integrated, collaborative cross departmental basis.

The scale of the threat from climate change is enormous, as was outlined by the former Environment Minister Arlene Foster who said, in introducing the legislative consent motion for the UK Climate Change bill in the Assembly on Monday 10 th December 2007

“it is now accepted that climate change is the greatest environmental challenge faced by the world today.”

and

“The UK Government, and each of the devolved administrations, are committed to tackling the issue, because we in Northern Ireland must play our part.”

A motion was passed by the Assembly on 2 nd October 2007 recognising the need to integrate climate change and sustainable development policies in

“all relevant areas of government” (45).

However, there appears to be very little evidence that the Executive has thus far ensured that environmental commitments on sustainable development and tackling climate change are mainstreamed in the Programme for Government.

CNCC therefore urges the Northern Ireland Administration to review its policies in order to ensure that Northern Ireland fully plays its part in tackling climate change by :-

1. Mitigation

• decarbonising Northern Ireland’s energy supply
• reviewing the energy distribution system to ensure a greater degree of decentralised and renewable energy production
• increasing inward investment in alternative low and/or zero carbon technologies to create Northern Ireland based green jobs
• reducing Northern Ireland’s consumption of fossil fuels while also increasing the generation of energy from renewable sources thereby reducing Northern Ireland’s energy bill while also increasing Northern Ireland’s degree of energy security and
• ensuring climate change and sustainable development policies are integrated in and across “all relevant areas of government”.

2. Adaptation

• Taking practical action now to conserve our biodiversity
• Maintaining and increasing ecological resilience
• Accommodating change which is inevitable
• Integrating adaptation action across partners and sectors
• Developing our knowledge and planning strategically.

Malachy Campbell CNCC January 2009

Bibliography

(1) IPCC 2007 IPCC ‘Summary for Policy Makers’ (p5)

(2) WWF ‘Climate Change: Stronger, Faster, Sooner’ 2008

(3) IPCC 2001, IPCC Working Group 1, “The Scientific Basis”

(4) People and the Planet

(5) UN Human Development Report 2007/2008 Fighting Climate Change Human Solidarity in a divided world

(6) PIK 2004 Potsdam Institute for Climate Research No. 93 How much warming are we committed to and how much can be avoided. Hare, B and Meinshausen, M.

(7) J Hansen et al Global Temperature Change Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 103, no.39 2006

(8) Sweeny, K., Fealy R., McElwain L., Siggins L., and Sweeny J. (2008) Changing shades of green : The Environmental and Cultural impacts of Climate change in Ireland Irish American Climate Project Berkeley USA

(9) Hansen et al “Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7, 2287-2312, 2007

(10) Hansen et al Earth’s Energy Imbalance Science 308, pp 1431-1435 2005

(11)Siegenthaler et al Science 25 November 2005 310: 1313-1317

(12) Stern review on the Economics of Climate Change 2006

(13) www.350.org

(14) Parry, M., Palutikof, J., Hanson, C and Lowe J 2008 Squaring up to reality Nature reports climate change, 2 68-70

(15) A Smart, Successful, Sustainable Scotland: the potential for green enterprise and green jobs’ WWF Scotland

(16) http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/Publications/publicationdetail.htm?productid=CTC520

(17) WWF, RSPB and ippr “80% Challenge: Delivering a low carbon Britain” http://www.wwf.org.uk/news/n_0000004525.asp

(18) Sabine et al Science Vol 305 no. 5682 pp 367-371 2004

(19) Journal of Geophysical Research (Vol 112), Schuster and Watson of UEA

(20) Ecotec (1994) The Potential for Employment Opportunities from Pursuing Sustainable Development, report to the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, Birmingham/Brussels: Ecotec.

(21) WWF France http://www.wwf.fr/s_informer/nos_missions/changement_climatique

“-30% de CO2 = + 684,000 emplois pour la France, l’equation gagnante pour la France ” or “- 30% CO2 = + 684,000 jobs, France’s wining formula” At the time of writing only the French version of this report was available via the WWF France website but it is anticipated that the English version will also be made available

(22) http://www.wrightbus.com/site/default.asp?CATID=9

(23) http://www.bmu.de/english/current_press_releases/pm/41914.php

(24) http://www.bmu.de/english/current_press_releases/pm/40276.php

(25) http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html

(26) http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm

(27) Stroeve, J., Holland, M, Weir, W., Scambon, T. and Serreze M. 2007 Arctic sea ice decline:faster than forecast Geophysical Research Letters 34 L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703

(28) Nature Geoscience Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate NOAA 2 December 2007 | doi:10.1038/ngeo.2007.38

(29) Department of Environment, State of the Environment Report, 2008

(30) UK Climate Impacts Partnership The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends 2007

(31) SNIFFER Preparing for a changing climate in Northern Ireland

(32) Five Seconds to Midnight, Kieran Hickey 2008 White Row Press

(33) Foss, P.J., O’Connell, C and Crushell, P.H. Bogs and Fens of Ireland Conservation

Plan 2005 Irish Peatland Conservation Council 2001.

(34) MONARCH – a synthesis for biodiversity conservation

(35) J.D.Orford, N.Betts, J.A.G. Cooper and B.J. Smith 2007 Future Coastal Scenarios

for Northern Ireland Unpublished report for the National Trust

(36) DEFRA Charting Progress report April 2005

(37) Arctic Climate Change with a 2°C Global Warming, Dr Mark New, Oxford University

(38) Webb, D.A., The Flora of Ireland in its European context:The Boyle Medal

Discourse 1982 J. Life Sci. R. Dublin. Soc 4: 143-160

(39) Ireland, David Cabot (1999) The New Naturalist Library

(40) DEFRA The environment in your pocket 2007

(41) Information provided in response to an Assembly Question on river pollution levels by Thomas Burns see http://www.thomasburns.org/ for more detail

(42) Dai et al, Journal of Hydrometeorology 2004 Vol 5 Issue 6 pp1117-1130

(43) The Guardian 19 th June 2002

(44) Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., Allen, M.R, Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003 Nature 432, 610-614 2 December 2004

(45) Assembly motion of 2 nd October 2007 “That this Assembly recognises sustainable development, in general, and climate change, in particular, as central to its consideration in all relevant areas of government, including opportunities to use local economic and technological innovation strategies to place Northern Ireland at the forefront of the emerging green economy in Europe; calls for the full implementation of ‘First Steps, the Sustainable Development Strategy for Northern Ireland’; and calls on the Executive to ensure that environmental commitments on sustainable development and tackling climate change are mainstreamed in the Programme for Government .”