Committee for the Environment - Inquiry into Climate Change Submissions

Committee on Climate Change submission to Climate Change Inquiry

Terms of Reference

a) To identify initial commitments for Northern Ireland that will ensure it plays a fair and proportionate role as part of the UK in meeting climate change targets.

To meet the obligations laid out in the Climate Change Act (2008) the Committee on Climate Change set out recommendations for the level of UK carbon budgets in its inaugural report “Building a low carbon economy – the UK’s contribution to tackling climate change”. The Committee advised that budgets apply to all greenhouse gases (GHGs), as defined in the Kyoto basket, and exclude emissions from international aviation and shipping, pending agreement on their treatment internationally. The UK budgets imply a reduction in emissions of 31% against 2005 levels by 2020, should a global deal to tackle emissions be reached, with a 21% reduction required in the interim. The Committee advised that no limit was required on purchase of EUA’s in the traded sector, whilst the purchase of offset credits should be strictly limited in the Interim budgets to ensure a minimum level of domestic effort.

This advice did not specify precisely how budgets should be met, either at a sectoral or regional level. However, it did suggest that the pattern of abatement ought to reflect the costliness of emissions reductions, the actions required on the path to an 80% reduction in UK GHG emissions by 2050 and the availability of policy levers to unlock emissions reductions.

The Committee has made an initial assessment of Northern Ireland’s share of abatement opportunities as a proportion of the UK total. This work identifies over 2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) of abatement potential in Northern Ireland in 2020, including:

• Emissions from buildings and industry could be reduced by up to 1 MtCO2 in 2020 by using energy more efficiently;
• More efficient vehicles and new transport fuels could deliver reductions of up to 1 MtCO 2 in 2020;
• Emissions from agriculture, land use and forestry and waste management sectors could be reduced by up to 0.5 MtCO2e in 2020.

Given the indicative nature of the analysis for Northern Ireland to date, the Committee recommends that further work is required in identifying appropriate climate change targets in Northern Ireland. However, the Committee’s work to date highlights that there are opportunities for significant emissions reductions in Northern Ireland.

The Committee also notes that the Climate Change Act 2008 does not require commitments to be made by Northern Ireland in relation to meeting UK carbon budgets.

b) To consider the necessary actions and a route map for each significant sector in Northern Ireland (energy, transport, agriculture and land use, business, domestic, public sector etc)

The Committee has not yet advised on the precise sectoral contributions or necessary actions required to meet carbon budgets. In the first progress report to the UK parliament, to be provided in September 2009, the Committee’s focus will be to set out a UK level framework against which future progress in reducing emissions can be monitored.

A key component will be to develop a set of leading indicators to drive forward the emissions reduction pathway to 2020 and help measure progress in achieving a low carbon economy. There will be four levels of indicators:

• Sectoral emissions – recent, current and projected
• Drivers of sectoral emissions (e.g. average g/kWh for power generation, energy demand, g/km for new cars)
• Actions required (e.g. renewables capacity added, number of houses insulated, number of electric car charging points installed)
• Policy frameworks required to drive required actions (e.g. package to support energy efficiency improvement in homes)

The Committee is not currently in a position to advise on necessary actions or a sectoral road map for Northern Ireland. The principles established in the progress report will provide an appropriate framework around which to base an approach for Northern Ireland.

c) To identify the costs associated with meeting these obligations and compare them with the costs that will be incurred if they are not achieved.

The Committee estimates the UK macroeconomic impact of meeting carbon budgets in 2020 would be under 1% of GDP. Meeting required reductions to 2050 are expected to cost around 1-2% of GDP in the UK, or 1-3% of GDP globally.

The Committee believes that this cost is affordable and necessary if larger climate change costs and consequences are to be avoided.

The Committee has not estimated the macroeconomic impact in Northern Ireland.

d) To identify a formal cost effective mechanism for assessing the potential impact of new policies on climate change / CO2 emissions. (Akin to Regulatory Impact Assessments/Rural Proofing)

Not covered by CCC’s analysis

e) To make recommendations for appropriate targets/actions that could be included in the new Northern Ireland Sustainable Development Implementation Plan.

See response to ‘b’.

f) To make recommendations on a public service agreement for the DOE Climate Change Unit’s commitments in the second Programme for Government that will ensure Northern Ireland will meet its climate change obligations.

Not covered by CCC’s analysis

g) To consider what secondary legislation raising powers within the UK Climate Change Act would contribute to Northern Ireland’s commitment to the UK Climate Change Bill.

Not covered by CCC’s analysis

h) To express views on if and how the Assembly might conduct more effective scrutiny of climate change responsibilities across all relevant departments.

Not covered by CCC’s analysis